How to trade Forex with no charts or indicators

01 August 2025

Modern Forex trading is mostly done through algorithms. Professionals employ trading robots, which are often based on technical analysis. However, there are thousands of traders who are training the market manually and use technical analysis tactics. Despite its popularity, technical analysis does not provide a full edge in Forex trading, and it is mandatory to understand fundamental forces beyond the price action. These forces are so powerful that some experienced traders rely solely on them to predict price movements and generate consistent profits. In this guide about Forex fundamental trading, we will explore this intriguing topic and outline the main ideas around the fundamental method and how you can rely on it solely for accurate trading decisions and profit generation. So let’s begin.

Intro to pure fundamental trading

Trading without charts is not an easy task, and it involves a deep understanding of the macroeconomic forces behind Forex currency fluctuations. The core philosophy is that Forex macro trading ignores technical indicators and price charts, focusing exclusively on macroeconomic forces, geopolitical events, and policy shifts that drive currency valuations. This approach requires understanding how economic health and major shifts in policies and interest rates translate into currency devaluation or valuation. Here are the main fundamental forces to learn about if you wish to become a master at Forex data trading:

Interest rate decisions and differentials
Capital flows
Relative economic performance
Political stability and predictability

Interest rates are defined by central banks of nations, and changes in this indicator have immediate and profound effects on the currency. Because of this, fundamental traders carefully watch interest rate policies and can define possible scenarios and major trends in the medium to long term. One interesting strategy to deploy is carry trade, where traders exploit the difference between interest rates of two nations, allowing them to borrow from a cheap country and invest in higher-yield currencies. A famous example of carry trade is the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar carry trade. Analyzing and comparing economic performance and capital inflows and outflows between nations is also a powerful method to define which currency is stronger, and when coupled with strong fundamental indicators, it could represent high probability opportunities.

Political stability is the backbone of a nation’s currency, and when it becomes unstable and unpredictable, the currency suffers immediately.

Why trading forex without indicators works

Currencies directly reflect a nation’s economic reality. Stronger GDP growth attracts foreign capital and boosts demand for the currency. Higher interest rates increase yield appeal, and trade surpluses create natural currency demand. Despite its importance, forex GDP trading without interest rates and other fundamental forces analysis won’t give profitable results, so traders should always try to combine several fundamental factors for major trend detection.

Historical proof

There are many proofs throughout market history that prove the effectiveness of fundamental analysis in trading. George Soros in 1992 capitalized on the “Black Wednesday” by shorting the British pound based solely on fundamental analysis of unsustainable UK fiscal policies and ERM membership. This trade made him famous and earned him 1 billion dollars in profits, which is by far one of the largest winnings.

The advantages of trading without charts

Fundamental trading forex strategies have numerous advantages over traditional technical FX trading. These advantages include reduced market noise, alignment with major trends, and mitigating false trading signals.

Eliminating Noise

Trading without charts eliminates market noise. Technical analysis often causes "paralysis by overanalysis" phenomena with conflicting indicators. This is especially true on lower timeframes and makes it difficult to gauge the true direction of market movements. Price charts react to fundamentals and, by focusing on root causes, provide traders with predictive power while effectively reducing market noise. When you know the major trend is bullish, you can avoid false signals by ignoring sell signals.

Alignment with Institutional Drivers

Institutions generate a significant portion of the 7.5 trillion daily Forex volume. Their moves dictate market direction, and they operate purely on fundamentals. These institutions generally track macroeconomic data using advanced technologies such as machine learning and AI to predict future price movements. Central banks set policy based on inflation, employment, and growth metrics, not chart patterns. When the Fed signaled tightening of rates in 2021, hedge funds accumulated USD positions weeks before technical breakouts occurred. Retail traders who are chasing “confirmed breakouts” usually enter near peaks, missing the majority of the move. Fundamental traders, on the other hand, do the following:

Identify policy shifts
Position ahead of institutional herd movements
Capture a significant portion (often above 70%) of major trends

This is why retail traders should at least incorporate fundamentals into their technical strategies or develop robust fundamental Forex trading no charts strategies.

Mitigating False Signals

Charts tend to fail during major crises. Technical systems collapse when fundamentals overwhelm markets. GBP support levels were shattered as institutions repriced UK assets during the 2016 Brexit. If you were using technical systems, chances are high that you would experience serious losses due to major price fluctuations. COVID 2020 made moving average systems irrelevant amid liquidity shocks.

Fundamental trends last

Macroeconomic shifts create directional pressure, and trends tend to last for months or even years. The Fed tightening cycles showed an average of 22 months of bull markets. Commodity-driven currency rallies such as AUD and CAD typically last for at least 18 months. By employing Forex trading no charts strategies, traders can avoid whipsaws from algorithmic noise, false breakouts during low-volume sessions, and premature exits from profitable macro trends.

Main economic indicators for forex data trading

When we discuss Forex fundamental trading, you probably immediately think about several macro indicators like GDP, inflation, central bank policies, employment and consumption, and trade & capital flows.

GDP - A health metric of an economy

GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is used to measure the health of the overall economy. When GDP grows, it is a good signal for economic health and attracts foreign capital. As a result, the currency also strengthens as the demand for the fiat currency grows. Despite this, GDP does not often shake markets as its percentages usually change by a low margin. However, if the GDP numbers are much higher than predicted, it will immediately cause the currency pair's volatility. Here is the popular method for Forex fundamental trading when GDP is announced:

Identify accelerating versus decelerating economies
Long USD/JPY when US GDP is above 3%reflecting expansion, while Japan GDP is below 1%indicating stagnation.

JPY is known for its low interest rates and low GDP growth, which is a good indicator for USD/JPY trends, and many fundamental traders use this pair for medium-term forex GDP trading.

Inflation and central bank policy

Inflation has an even stronger impact on the currency than GDP. Currencies tend to rise when central banks hike interest rates to combat inflation. When the US Fed changes interest rates significantly, Forex pairs, especially EUR/USD, can move 100s of pips in mere minutes. When CCI and CPI deviate from the forecast by more than 0.5% you can also expect major price swings. The bottom line is that EURUSD is a good buy when the Fed tightens its interest rates.

Employment and consumption

Employment and consumption are an integral part of forex macro trading strategies. Retail sales month-on-month can also seriously overturn trends and cause major price fluctuations when it deviates more than 0.8% of the forecasted number. When it rises above 0.8% it signals consumption resilience and ultimately causes the currency to gain strength. Among the employment indicators, the NFP is the unchallenged king. It causes major price volatility almost every month when it comes out, and beginner traders are strongly advised to avoid opening positions during this indicator to avoid losses, as even the EUR/USD pair tends to cover 100s of pips when the number deviates from the forecast amount significantly.

Trade & capital flows

Historically, a 1% GDP surplus accounts for around 3% currency appreciation. In this case, a good trade would be to buy EUR when the German trade balance surpasses 20 billion. FDI inflows above 2% GDP are also a buy signal.

Here is the execution checklist to catch the best trade and capital inflow setups when trading forex without indicators:

Confirm surplus sustainability - Minimum 3 months
Cross-verify with manufacturing PMI - Should be above 55
Enter only at the bond inflow confirmation - TIC data

Overall, traders need to analyze several macroeconomic indicators, and the best results are achieved when they combine several of those indicators into one robust trading signal.

Fundamental trading forex - Advanced market sentiment gauges

Traders can employ advanced trading techniques to capitalize on fundamental data. Among the top techniques are bond market yield curve forecasting, options sentiment analysis, geopolitical risk premiums, and so on.

Bond yield curve and credit spread techniques

Experienced traders often employ the following strategies with bonds: when the curve is steepening, meaning 10Y-2Y is above 0.2%, they take it as a signal for an AUD/CAD buy trade. If the curve is flattening, often the JPY (Japanese yen) becomes a safe-haven currency, and more and more investors try to invest in JPY pairs.

Risk reversals and options sentiment

Smart money barometer:

Put/Call Skew: 25-delta risk reversal >0.5 = bearish bias

Example: EUR/USD fell 4% when risk reversal hit +0.73 pre-ECB cut.

VIX triggers:

VIX >30: Buy JPY/CHF
VIX <15: Sell JPY for MXN/ZAR

VIX is a derivative that allows traders to bet on the future volatility of the S&P 500 index. This index is a volatility index.

These strategies are pretty advanced and not targeted at beginners, as they need to first understand bond and options markets more deeply and only then try to implement these advanced fundamental techniques.

Geopolitical risk premiums explained

Here is when to buy a country’s currency:

Poll lead - Pro-business candidate ahead by at least 15% in independent and reliable polls
Confidence rising - Foreign money starts flowing into the country.
Action - Buy the currency

For example, it would be a great idea to buy a Mexican peso (MXN) if a pro-trade candidate wins the elections.

Core Forex fundamental trading strategies

Core fundamental strategies include macro carry trade, GDP divergence trading, and catalyst trading.

The Macro Carry Trade

Japan is a main pretender when we discuss carry trading techniques. Due to its low interest rates, it is very cheap to borrow JPY and invest overseas or in other currencies with higher-yield percentages. Japanese investors often borrow JPY (0.1%) to buy MXN, which has 11.25% to capture an 11.15% yield. This is a serious difference, and carry trade strategies have been the main techniques in Japanese fundamental traders’ arsenal for decades.

The execution blueprint for a carry trade strategy is as follows:

Stability check - Target central bank policy. For example, ensure there are no cuts for the next 90 days.
Growth filter - GDP growth is above 2% in high-yield currencies like MXN and USD.
Entry trigger - Post-rate hike confirmation. When the rates are increased or decreased, it is time to enter.
Exit - Exit when yield spread compression is more than 15%.

In 2023, you could short sell JPY/MXN and gain 24% as the Bank of Japan maintained YCC.

GDP Divergence Trading

To speculate on a GDP difference, the difference between two countries’ GDP growth rates should be at least 2%. For example, the US GDP is 3.1% while the Eurozone has just 0.2% for Q4, 2024. However, you still need to confirm data, where a manufacturing PMI could be used. When the Manufacturing PMI difference gap is more than 10 points, you can confirm the GDP signal. In this strategy, the entry is when the GDP data is released. Take profit could be 100+ pips, and traders could leave the position open till the next GDP announcement.

Key Takeaways:

1. Trading forex without indicators involves economies, not charts

Forex currencies reflect a nation’s economic health, like GDP, interest rates, and political stability. USD/JPY surges when US growth outpaces Japan’s.

2. Institutions are your compass

A significant portion of daily FX volume comes from players who only use fundamentals, and you should follow their lead as well.

3. Profit from real-world shocks

Global events like Brexit, COVID, and trade wars shattered technical systems, but fundamental traders got rewarded.

4. Your edge: Three core strategies:

Carry trades - Harvest rate gaps
GDP divergences - Go long strong economies vs. weak ones