Welcome to the first session after the delayed January non-farm payrolls release. Yesterday’s job numbers came in significantly above expectations, printing at 130,000 versus the 66,000 forecast. That is a substantial upside surprise and, at least on paper, a strong signal about labor market resilience.
Donald Trump quickly commented on the data, calling the job numbers “far greater than expected” and once again urging the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, this time framing the argument around economic strength rather than weakness. The messaging remains consistent: strong economy, push for easier policy.
Looking at today’s calendar, the focus shifts to UK GDP, expected at 0.1%, and later US unemployment claims, projected at 222,000. Compared to yesterday, the macro agenda is lighter. The earnings calendar is also relatively quiet, with no major headline names reporting today.
Yesterday after the market close, Cisco delivered better-than-expected earnings, yet pre-market trading shows the stock down around 7%, highlighting how positioning and forward guidance can outweigh headline beats. McDonald's also reported solid numbers, but the reaction has been muted, with little change in after-hours trading.
In terms of market behavior, indices are slightly positive this morning. Yesterday’s reaction to non-farm payrolls was highly volatile, with a classic whipsaw move that attacked both sides of the market. Ultimately, the session closed near pre-release levels, which means the strong data failed to generate sustained directional momentum. Today, indices are grinding modestly higher, suggesting stabilization rather than conviction.
On the currency market, the US dollar remains broadly under pressure. Immediately after the payrolls release, the dollar strengthened as expected, but those gains faded quickly. The broader trend of dollar softness remains intact. During the Asian session, the Japanese yen has been the strongest performer, continuing its post-election strength. With this move, the yen has turned positive year-to-date, marking a significant shift in relative performance.
In commodities, oil remains firm and is holding near elevated levels. Precious metals are trading more sideways but with a slight positive bias, staying comfortably above the lows recorded at the end of last week. The absence of renewed selling suggests that the recent correction may be stabilizing for now.
Finally, cryptocurrencies continue to struggle. Bitcoin is on its fourth consecutive bearish day. The declines are not dramatic, but the steady grind lower keeps sentiment clearly negative. For now, crypto remains the weakest segment of the broader market landscape.
Overall, the strong payrolls print did not trigger a lasting shift in positioning. The dollar failed to hold gains, equities stabilized, and markets now appear to be recalibrating after a volatile but ultimately indecisive NFP session.