Last Trading Day of 2025: Metals Volatile as Markets Slow Down
31 December 2025
We are starting the final trading day of 2025, at least for part of the global market, as several exchanges are already closed. Trading activity remains visible in Japan, parts of Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, while the US markets are still operating, with unemployment claims expected later today at 219,000. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that most Fed officials still expect further rate cuts, although internal divisions remain. The reaction was muted, with only a slight strengthening of the American dollar, showing that markets were largely prepared for this outcome.
Looking at indices, momentum has clearly slowed. We are seeing a multi-day correction, which is particularly interesting given the typical expectation of a Santa Claus Rally during the final days of the year and the first sessions of January. So far, this seasonal effect has failed to materialize in 2025, suggesting caution and profit-taking into year-end rather than aggressive risk-taking. Whether this rally simply arrives late or is postponed into early 2026 remains an open question.
On the currency market, the tone is defensive. The US dollar and Swiss franc are gaining, while selected European currencies, including the British pound, are also relatively strong. In contrast, the New Zealand dollar is clearly under pressure. The most intense action, however, is in commodities. Precious metals remain the main focus, with gold and silver correcting lower. Silver suffered a sharp drop on Monday, rebounded on Tuesday, and is again under pressure today. Platinum, despite falling roughly 11%, remains an extraordinary performer for the year, still up about 120% in 2025. Oil, by comparison, is trading sideways, offering little directional conviction. This is the backdrop as the European session begins on the final trading day of the year, with traders already shifting their focus toward fresh opportunities in 2026.