Hello traders, and welcome to today’s technical analysis, where we take a close look at the Australian Dollar to U.S. Dollar (AUD/USD) — a pair currently sitting at a make-or-break technical level. The price action has reached a decisive point within a symmetric triangle pattern, marked with red lines, and traders are now waiting to see whether this will develop into a legitimate bearish breakout or turn into a false move.
Over the past few sessions, AUD/USD has been attempting to break below the lower boundary of the triangle, signaling a potential bearish continuation. However, just below that line lies an orange horizontal support, which is acting as the last line of defense for buyers. The price is currently struggling around this zone, unable to establish a clear direction. This hesitation raises the possibility that the ongoing breakout attempt could turn out to be a false breakout, especially if buyers manage to defend the orange area and push the price back into the formation.
The blue rectangle highlights this possible false breakout zone — an area of indecision where market participants are testing conviction. If the price manages to return back inside the triangle and hold above the orange support, it would confirm a false breakout, a development that could trigger a bullish bounce as short sellers unwind their positions. On the other hand, if the price closes an H4 candle below this week’s lows, that would validate the bearish breakout, opening the door for a long-term downward move and confirming that the triangle has indeed resolved to the downside.
As we approach the end of the week, this setup remains finely balanced. Traders should keep an eye on the orange support — it’s the key battleground. A successful defense would suggest a false breakout recovery, while a clean break lower would activate a strong sell signal. Either way, AUD/USD is poised for a significant move soon.