All eyes today are naturally on oil following the escalation between the US and Iran, but instead of focusing on the obvious instrument, it is worth looking at copper. While not directly tied to the conflict in the same way as crude, copper is still part of the broader commodities complex and can react to shifts in risk sentiment and global growth expectations.
Copper has been trending higher since February 17th. On February 19th, our analysis pointed out that price was bouncing off the lower boundary of a well-defined rectangle pattern. The expectation was for a move toward the upper boundary of that range. That scenario played out precisely, with the upper line of the rectangle reached at the end of last week.
Now price is trading near that resistance zone again. In classic range logic, after touching the upper boundary, the higher-probability scenario would be a rotation back toward the lower boundary. However, buying pressure remains visible, and the market is not showing immediate rejection.
From a tactical perspective, there are two scenarios to monitor. A daily close above last week’s high would constitute a breakout above the rectangle and generate a buy signal, opening the door for a continuation move higher. On the other hand, a clear rejection from the upper boundary would create a sell signal within the range structure.
That said, initiating short positions too aggressively may be premature. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a break below the red mid-term ascending trendline. That break would confirm that momentum has shifted and that sellers are regaining control.