In today’s technical analysis, let’s take a closer look at the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZD/USD) currency pair, which continues to move in a well-defined long-term uptrend. Since early May, the price has been consistently supported by a rising black trendline, reflecting sustained bullish momentum for the Kiwi.
However, the pair is now approaching a crucial technical level — the resistance zone around 0.607, marked with a purple line. This area has served as a ceiling throughout June, repeatedly pushing back attempts by buyers to break higher. While the overall structure remains bullish, this resistance presents a real test for the strength of the ongoing uptrend.
What adds intrigue to the current setup is the recent price action. On Monday, NZD/USD briefly managed to push above the 0.607 barrier, suggesting a possible breakout. However, the move was quickly reversed, and the price dropped back below the resistance. This momentary breach, marked with red, raises the possibility that we’re looking at a classic false breakout — a liquidity grab where price spikes above a key level to trigger orders, only to reverse sharply.
Now, all eyes are on the reaction at this resistance zone. If the price once again bounces lower from 0.607 and heads toward the black uptrend line, it would confirm that this purple resistance remains firm and sellers are defending the area. In such a case, we could expect a deeper bearish correction, at least toward the rising trendline that has guided the pair for over a month.
On the other hand, if bulls regain control and manage to close a daily candle convincingly above the 0.607 mark, this would invalidate the false breakout scenario and reopen the path toward further gains, possibly targeting the 0.615–0.62 zone next.