USDJPY Trying to Break 145 After Solid Jobs Data
07 October 2022
The USDJPY pair was attacking the critical resistance zone between 145 and 146, where the Bank of Japan intervened several days ago.
As of writing, the USD traded somewhat higher on the day, boosted by today's US labor market data.
US jobs market remains solid
The headline non-farm payrolls came in at 262,000, which was below the unrevised August reading of 315,000 and just over the consensus forecast of 255,000. Notably, the September print was the lowest since April 2021, albeit not terrible.
The revision to the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July increased it by 11,000, from +526,000 to +537,000, and the change for August stayed at +315,000.
Average hourly wages increased by 5.0% from a year ago and by 0.3% from August, exceeding estimates by a narrow margin. The former number was also unchanged from the 0.3% increase in August, while the latter dropped from a 5.2% Y/Y increase one month ago.
The unemployment rate surprisingly decreased from 3.7% to 3.5%, significantly below the predicted unchanged reading. This was due to a 250,000 decrease in the number of jobless people, who fell from slightly over 6 million to 5.753 million.
It looks like the 145 resistance could be broken today, as the USD is being supported by the broad greenback strength and rising US yields.
If that happens, we might see a quick leg higher to 146, and if the BoJ does not intervene again, a further rally toward 150 could occur over the next few days.
Alternatively, if sentiment deteriorates and bulls will lack the courage to test the BoJ's willingness to intervene, we might see some profit-taking, likely dragging the pair back to 144.