Ceasefire Intact, But Dollar Rattled by Trump Comments
26 June 2025
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to hold, which supports a generally positive market sentiment—particularly for equities. However, we now have a new element influencing markets: the growing tension between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell. Trump has publicly stated that he may accelerate the process of naming a successor to Fed Chair Powell as early as September or October. This political clash is weighing heavily on the US dollar, which continues to struggle as markets begin to price in more uncertainty over the Fed’s future direction.
Looking at the economic calendar, it’s relatively quiet today. The key events will be out of the US, with GDP data expected to come in at -0.2%, along with unemployment claims and durable goods orders. The European session offers no significant data releases.
Market Snapshot:
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Indices: US indices continue their bullish run, printing new long-term highs. European indices have been trailing behind slightly, but DAX is catching up with a strong move higher this morning.
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Currencies: Risk sentiment is a bit mixed. While indices are pushing higher, we’re seeing gains in safe-haven assets. The Japanese yen is currently the strongest currency, while the US dollar and Canadian dollar are underperforming—highlighting market concerns around political developments in the US.
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Commodities: Gold is up again today, reflecting a modest risk-off undercurrent. Oil, however, remains under pressure despite small gains this morning. The week has been rough for oil traders, with prices still well below Monday’s high opening.
As markets digest Trump’s comments and await key US data later today, expect continued volatility—particularly on USD pairs and commodities.