Christmas Eve Markets: Thin Liquidity, Clear Trends
24 December 2025
Traders are still active on Christmas Eve, and although liquidity is thinner and volatility is lower, markets are far from frozen. The most notable theme right now is weakness of the American dollar, which is clearly struggling. The dollar is the weakest currency this week, together with the Japanese yen, and this is not just a short-term story. Year-to-date, the dollar is down almost 8%, making it the weakest major currency of the year, with the Japanese yen close behind at around –7.5%. Even yesterday’s better-than-expected U.S. GDP data only provided a short-lived bounce before sellers stepped back in. Today, most European and antipodean markets are closed, but U.S. markets remain open, and we will still get U.S. unemployment claims, which may create some limited intraday movement.
On the equity side, indices remain very strong. The broader sentiment is clearly positive, and 2025 has been an exceptionally successful year for stock markets. Nearly all major global indices are solidly positive year-to-date, and despite the holiday slowdown, prices continue to grind higher. There is no sign of panic or distribution here—rather, this looks like calm consolidation near highs as the year comes to an end.
Commodities are where the action really stands out. Oil is rebounding, gaining almost 5% this week, suggesting that the recent bearish phase may be losing momentum. Even more impressive is the continued strength in metals. Silver is still pushing higher and is up an extraordinary 146% year-to-date, while gold has gained around 71% over the same period. Importantly, this strength is not fading into Christmas—metals continue to attract buyers. As we approach the holiday break and the final days of 2025, the message is clear: activity is quieter, but the dominant trends—weak dollar, strong indices, and powerful commodities—are very much intact.