Hello traders, welcome to Wednesday. Today’s calendar is packed with important releases, and traders should brace for volatility. We’re waiting for the Eurozone CPI flash estimate, expected at 2.2%, alongside ADP non-farm employment change from the US (forecast 52,000) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (expected at 49). These reports will be critical in shaping sentiment for both currencies and indices as we move through the session.
Looking back at yesterday, the data was mostly in line with expectations, though the US CB Consumer Confidence came in weaker, providing a small dent in the dollar’s momentum. Still, the real story is how markets are opening today. The European session starts with notable strength in the yen, with yen pairs collapsing rapidly, highlighting aggressive outflows from other currencies. At the same time, indices are under pressure, with futures flashing red after a strong performance on Tuesday. This shift hints at renewed caution creeping into risk sentiment.
The most important development is on the US dollar, which is dropping sharply at the end of the Asian session. Several pairs—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and NZD/USD—are now testing absolutely key resistance zones. This setup suggests we are approaching a decisive moment. Either the dollar stages a comeback and reclaims strength, or a breakout above these resistances will mark the start of a much deeper bearish cycle for the greenback.
On commodities, oil continues to struggle after heavy losses in the first half of the week, unable to find a convincing rebound. By contrast, precious metals remain firm, staging a strong reversal in the second half of Tuesday and carrying that momentum into Wednesday. Silver in particular is shining, up over 60% year-to-date, underscoring just how powerful the bullish sentiment remains across the metals space.
So, Wednesday opens with markets at a crossroads: a weaker dollar facing critical tests, yen under intense pressure, indices turning lower, and metals extending gains. The data later today will likely decide the direction for the rest of the week.