Hello traders, and welcome to Thursday — a key day on the calendar with high-impact economic events that are set to shape market sentiment.
Today’s main focus is the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP), which have been moved forward due to Independence Day tomorrow. The market is expecting an increase of 111,000 jobs, but uncertainty hangs in the air after Wednesday’s shocking ADP employment data, which came in at -33,000. That miss not only raised red flags but also handed political ammunition to Donald Trump, who continues to pressure Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. If today’s NFP confirms the ADP weakness, the conversation around rate cuts will undoubtedly intensify.
Adding to today’s packed schedule is Swiss CPI, expected at 0.1%, and the ISM Services PMI from the U.S., forecast at 50.8% — another important gauge for economic activity and business sentiment.
Turning to currencies, the British Pound remains under heavy pressure, extending its Wednesday losses, which were driven by fiscal policy reversals and political instability in the UK. The GBP was the weakest performer on Wednesday and continues to slide this morning. Other underperformers include the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, both lagging amid weaker risk appetite in the Asia-Pacific region.
On the flip side, strength can be found in the Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Euro, all of which are gaining ground, showing resilience in the face of market uncertainty.
Indices remain a bright spot — U.S. and European futures are climbing again, with major benchmarks holding close to long-term highs. The rally in equities remains well intact, supported by relatively strong earnings, dovish expectations from central banks, and a generally risk-on sentiment.
In commodities, oil prices surged on Wednesday, marking a strong day for energy markets. While Thursday brings a modest bearish correction, the broader sentiment remains bullish for now. Meanwhile, precious and industrial metals are drifting sideways with a positive tilt. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and copper are all trading in the green on the weekly charts, although momentum remains moderate.
Overall, it’s a critical day for traders, especially those watching dollar dynamics and rate expectations. The tone for the next leg in the market may be set by this afternoon’s NFP report — so stay alert.