Monday starts with a major surprise for the markets.
After weeks of pushing to keep the route open, Donald Trump has shifted direction. The US is now moving to block the Strait of Hormuz, with military action scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. Eastern time. That’s a serious escalation and markets reacted immediately.
We are clearly in a risk-off environment.
Across the board, we’re seeing bearish gaps. Indices opened lower, and futures remain under pressure as the European session begins. The same applies to forex, where the US dollar is gaining strength. Alongside it, the Japanese yen is also moving higher, which is typical in times of uncertainty.
Interestingly, the Hungarian forint stands out as the strongest currency today, supported by local political developments following election results in Hungary.
On commodities, the reaction is very clear. Oil is surging sharply, up around 7–8%, which makes sense given the importance of the Hormuz route for global supply.
At the same time, precious metals are not behaving in a typical way. Both gold and silver are actually moving lower, showing that gold is currently trading more like a regular commodity than a safe haven.
Cryptocurrencies are also under pressure. Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped significantly, especially during Sunday trading.
From a technical perspective, this kind of environment is tricky. Large gaps tend to disrupt clean chart patterns and invalidate many setups. But usually, after the initial shock, the market stabilizes and new technical opportunities begin to form.
For now, volatility is back, and caution is definitely warranted.