This midweek session opens with a strong risk-on mood, fueled by reports that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. Markets are responding positively to the easing geopolitical tensions, and indices are pushing significantly higher across the board.
Let’s first take a look at the economic calendar. Yesterday, we received inflation data from Canada, which came in slightly higher than expected. Today’s session brought inflation figures from Australia, which disappointed to the downside, but interestingly, this has not hurt the Australian dollar, which is actually stronger this morning.
Still to come today is a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Market participants will be closely watching for any monetary policy insights or forward guidance, especially after recent data and the ongoing global uncertainties.
On the currency front, Japanese yen is the weakest currency today, continuing its slide as traders move away from safe havens. Other currencies—particularly those tied to risk appetite—are gaining traction. The yen’s weakness is a clear confirmation of the risk-on environment.
In commodities, oil remains under pressure, with WTI and Brent both suffering over 10% weekly losses. Today brings only a minor bullish rebound, but momentum remains soft and buyer confidence is clearly lacking. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have dropped sharply, adding to the bearish tone in the energy space.
As for precious metals, sentiment remains heavy. Gold is flat today but down on the week, while silver is similarly subdued, showing no strength despite recent market jitters.
So far, the ceasefire news and dovish geopolitical tone are driving optimism, and traders are clearly leaning into equities and risk assets. Let’s see if this sentiment continues throughout the day and into the American session.