Hello traders, and welcome to Thursday – the calm before the storm. With non-farm payrolls due tomorrow, markets are already bracing for volatility. Normally, Thursdays come loaded with data, but this time the macro calendar looks unusually light. The main points of attention will be Swiss inflation, expected at -0.2%, and the U.S. unemployment claims later in the day.
On the political side, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown saga continues. In the past, such episodes triggered strong moves across assets, but this time investors seem desensitized. It’s being treated more like a soap opera than a real market driver, at least for now.
Looking back at Wednesday, the highlight was the ADP non-farm employment change, often seen as a preview of tomorrow’s NFP. The data disappointed, coming in weaker than expected. That sparked a sharp initial drop in the U.S. dollar, but the move didn’t last – the greenback quickly regained its footing, showing once again its resilience in recent sessions.
Equities, meanwhile, had a stellar day. Indices surged, with the DAX leading the charge higher, and Thursday morning shows that momentum is still alive. Currencies are seeing a mixed picture: the U.S. dollar is attempting to recover, but the Japanese yen and antipodean currencies (AUD, NZD) stand out as the strongest performers right now.
In the commodities space, metals remain firmly bid, with gold and silver pushing higher and confirming the broader bullish trend. Oil, on the other hand, continues to struggle near its local bottoms, unable to generate meaningful upside.
So here we are – one day before the most important event of the week. The market is optimistic on indices, supportive on metals, cautious on oil, and still testing the dollar’s ability to hold ground. All eyes are now turning to Friday’s jobs data, which will set the tone not only for the end of the week but potentially for weeks ahead.