The first session of the final full trading week in February begins in clear risk-off mode. The driver is political. Over the weekend, Donald Trump announced an immediate increase in global tariffs to 15%, up from 10%. The move adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile trade environment. Combined with ongoing legal and political disputes around tariff policy, the backdrop is messy, and uncertainty is something financial markets typically price aggressively.
Equity futures are opening firmly on the red side. The tone suggests that Monday could remain under pressure unless we see a reversal in headlines. The market is repricing risk rather than reacting to macro data, as today’s calendar is empty with no major economic releases scheduled.
In FX, classic safe-haven flows are visible. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are strengthening, while risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar are weaker. The British pound is also under pressure. Interestingly, the US dollar is not behaving as a pure safe haven in this case and is trading softer, reflecting the fact that the tariff decision originates from the US and may carry domestic economic consequences.
Commodities show divergence. Oil is moving lower and has opened the week with a bearish gap. This is notable given that tensions between the United States and Iran remain unresolved. Despite the geopolitical overhang, oil is reacting more to risk aversion and growth concerns than to supply fears.
Metals, on the other hand, are clearly benefiting from the uncertainty. Gold and silver are pushing higher, with silver up around 5% at the start of the week. Gold is trading at the highest levels seen in February, while silver is approaching monthly highs and looks technically poised to challenge them. Copper is also firm, signaling a bid in hard assets despite equity weakness.
With no major macro releases today, market direction will likely remain headline-driven. Tariff developments and geopolitical tension are the dominant catalysts. In the absence of fresh economic data, volatility may persist as traders adjust positioning to a more uncertain global trade landscape.