Hello traders, welcome on Monday, a session many associate with the start of the Santa Claus Rally. Traditionally, this phenomenon refers to the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year, when equities often push higher. The question, as always, is whether this seasonal pattern will play out again. So far, markets are sending mixed signals, with optimism in some areas and clear warning signs in others.
The biggest focus today is clearly on precious metals, especially silver. After an explosive move higher late last week, silver surged above the $80 per ounce mark on Friday, only to reverse sharply lower at the start of this week. This kind of violent back-and-forth highlights extremely elevated volatility and may be an early warning sign of a short-term exhaustion or even a local top. Gold is also under pressure, trading lower alongside silver, which suggests that the precious metals complex as a whole is entering a more unstable and corrective phase after an exceptionally strong run.
On the currency market, the European session opens with noticeable strength in the Japanese yen and the American dollar. This combination typically signals a more cautious or defensive tone among traders. At the same time, European currencies and especially the New Zealand dollar are under pressure, flashing red across the board. These moves suggest a selective risk-off shift rather than a broad, aggressive sell-off, with capital rotating back into perceived safe or liquid currencies.
Looking at cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is attempting to push higher and is trying to break out of a symmetric triangle formation to the upside. While this is technically encouraging in the very short term, the broader sentiment in crypto remains fragile, and buyers still need to prove that this breakout can hold. For now, it looks more like a recovery attempt than the start of a new sustained bullish trend.
Finally, from a fundamental perspective, today’s calendar is relatively quiet. The only notable data point later in the day will be pending home sales from the US, released during the American session. With limited macro catalysts, today’s trading is likely to remain driven by technical levels, positioning, and year-end flows rather than fresh economic surprises. As the Santa Claus Rally window opens, traders should stay alert: volatility, especially in metals, is reminding us that year-end markets can be anything but calm.