Shifting our sights to USD/JPY shows a pair that seems to be stuck. Using a combination of Moving Averages, we can see that momentum is stalling out, with price currently testing the resistance of this tight range.
USD/JPY on the Daily Chart
Going down to the 1-hour chart, the current structure seems slightly bullish as a very strong and volatile attempt to push prices lower was aggressively bought up, with a clear uptrend structure being maintained.
USD/JPY on the 4-hour Timeframe
True confirmation of this breakout would mean breaking out and retesting the upper end of the range at 157.94 from above. This level coincides with the 14-day Average True Range (the average volatility over the past fourteen days) added to today’s low at 156.752. The reason why this is interesting to monitor is that ATR gives us a baseline for how much the price tends to move in a day. When combining that with the current day low, we can basically see how high the price would go in a day with standard volatility.