Introduction
This week, the spotlight turned to the Pacific as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) confirmed the market’s dovish expectations, triggering a ripple effect across major asset classes. While central bank policy dictated the macro narrative, price action stole the show in the commodities sector. From the S&P 500 eyeing fresh records to Silver unexpectedly outshining Gold, we break down the critical technical levels and setups you need to watch heading into next week.
Global Macro
The headline piece in global macro this week was the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Main Interest Rate set by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to cut the main interest rate by 25 basis points. Inflation in New Zealand came out at 3.0% for the last data point, but the RBNZ is convinced that inflation will drop to their 2% target by mid-2026, stating that the September reading was mostly higher due to petrol prices and food inflation.
At the same time, economic growth in New Zealand has been relatively weak, with a -0.9% QoQ GDP growth for the second quarter of 2025. This economic weakness, combined with inflation which is above average, but still at their targeted upper band, mandated another 25bps rate cut.
Equities
Indices saw a strong week across the board. After creating a local bottom at the end of last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed convincingly higher this week. The focus now shifts to next week, which will indicate whether prices are able to create a new ATH, continuing this year’s very strong uptrend.
S&P 500 Chart on a Daily Timeframe
Alternatively, if prices create another Lower High, it would suggest the recent rally was merely a correction, and caution regarding downside risks is warranted.
The VIX on a Daily Timeframe
The Volatility Index (VIX) went convincingly lower this week, dropping a massive 11 points. The VIX tracks sentiment by looking at demand for call and put options. A rapidly dropping VIX thus indicates that market participants are becoming increasingly optimistic and positioning themselves for further upside. This can help increase the likelihood of indices retesting their ATHs.
Forex
The Forex majors had a very quiet week, with subdued volatility. However, AUDNZD is still testing its multi-year high and trying to break out.
AUDNZD on the Monthly Timeframe
Prices saw strong rejection at the 1.164 level two weeks ago, and a current daily downtrend was confirmed on Wednesday, as AUDNZD dropped sharply following the RBNZ’s interest rate decision.
AUDNZD on the 12 Hour Chart
The major support levels to the downside appear to be 1.1395 and 1.1357. If price loses both of these, the odds of AUDNZD breaking out of its multi-year range drop significantly.
Commodities
Commodities-wise, Silver was the eye-catcher this week. Both Gold and Silver attempted a rally towards their old highs at the end of the week, but Silver managed to strongly outperform.
Silver on the 4-hour Timeframe
As this is being written, Silver is effectively creating new all-time highs. After forming an initial double top and a shallow pullback on the third attempt, the price has now convincingly broken through. This suggests that the breakout is likely genuine and could lead to a strong run toward new all-time highs next week.
Conclusion
One-sentence summary of the week
RBNZ goes the dovish route - Equities and Metals attempting rallies to ATHs.